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Predicting Over/Under Win Totals For The 2018-2019 NBA Season


The NBA season is less than a week away, and we’ll finally be able to see how new-look rosters look in real games. Based on Vegas’ over-under predictions, we’ll go over each team’s quick outlook in terms of expected wins for the upcoming season. These win projections are from Bovada via OddsShark.

 

Atlanta Hawks (23.5)

I believe the Hawks will compete in Lloyd Pierce’s first season as head coach, but I’m not sure they have the talent to win over 25 games. Under.

 

Boston Celtics (58.5)

The Celtics are certainly not lacking in talent, and they have the coaching with Brad Stevens and company, too. Boston might push for over 65 wins. Over.

 

Brooklyn Nets (32)

People are excited about the Nets, but the Eastern Conference might be stronger overall this season, so I’m leaning towards under.

 

Charlotte Hornets (35.5)

Tony Parker brings a great veteran presence that will help Charlotte win games, and Miles Bridges is an exciting young first-round pick, so I’ll say the Hornets keep Kemba Walker and eclipse 35 wins.

 

Chicago Bulls (29.5)

The Bulls had just 27 wins a season ago, but this is one of the easiest choices for me. Their young core is underrated and has some experience, so 30+ wins is a strong possibility.

 

Cleveland Cavaliers (30.5)

It wasn’t all LeBron James the last few seasons. The Cavaliers should remain competitive and be closer to 40 wins than 30 wins.

 

Dallas Mavericks (34.5)

2017-2018 was a trying season for the Mavericks, but Vegas is giving them a projected win total of ten wins more than last year. That’s a big ask. Under.

 

Denver Nuggets (47.5)

The Nuggets were relatively disappointing last season, but Paul Millsap is healthy and the team added Isaiah Thomas and Michael Porter Jr. It’s close, but over.

 

Detroit Pistons (38)

There are concerns about the Pistons roster with Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond headlining things as big men, but they hired the NBA Coach of the Year. Over.

 

Golden State Warriors (63.5)

This is the trickiest over-under, as the Warriors would easily hit 65-70 wins if they go all-out every night. But will it happen? I don’t know, but I think they hit at least 64 wins.

 

Houston Rockets (55.5)

Even with some roster changes, I was surprised to see the Rockets at a projected 55.5 win total after winning 65 games last season. Picking them to win ten less games is a bit of a stretch. Over.

 

Indiana Pacers (47.5)

The Pacers are right at their win total (48) from last season, and they should be able to hit it again in Victor Oladipo’s second season leading the franchise.

 

Los Angeles Clippers (36.5)

The Clippers played well down the stretch last year, and they could be in the trade market as buyers after they were sellers last season. Slightly over.

 

Los Angeles Lakers (48.5)

Over. Not just because of LeBron James, but because of an excellent young supporting cast that should only get better with their new high-profile teammate.

 

Memphis Grizzlies (33.5)

The Grizzlies are a similar team to the Mavericks, as Vegas projects them to be better than last season. I’m more optimistic about this squad and believe they will get 35+ wins.

 

Miami Heat (41.5)

In Dwyane Wade’s final season, it’d be great to see him in the playoffs one more time. For that, I probably have to say over.

 

Milwaukee Bucks (48)

Mike Gudenholzer and Giannis Antetokoumpo are a great coach-star combination. The Bucks could be in the 50s this season.

 

Minnesota Timberwolves (45)

Because of the uncertainty surrounding their star player—and their head coach to a lesser extent—it’s under for the Timberwolves despite their upside.

 

New Orleans Pelicans (45.5)

The Pelicans have a strong starting lineup headlined by Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday, and they also added more depth this season. They should be able to get near the 48 wins they had last season.

 

New York Knicks (29.5)

The Knicks shouldn’t be a boring team to watch, but I don’t think they’ll hit 30 wins this season.

 

Oklahoma City Thunder (48.5)

Let the good times roll after Paul George re-signed in OKC. Over.

 

Orlando Magic (31)

I don’t see the Magic getting better after firing Frank Vogel.

 

Philadelphia 76ers (54)

If Markelle Fultz is a force for the Sixers, the win total should be close to 60 wins.

 

Phoenix Suns (29.5)

The firing of GM Ryan McDonough was a stunner, and it could cause some weirdness with the team to start the year. I’ll say under.

 

Portland Trail Blazers (42)

The Blazers won 49 games last season, but Vegas identified them as a team to take a step back. They probably will, but I don’t think they’ll be down to below 42-43 wins.

 

Sacramento Kings (26)

The Kings have a lot of familiar names on their roster, and now they must progress and play good basketball together. I think they will. Over.

 

San Antonio Spurs (44.5)

It’s hard to pick against the Spurs, who will be able to count on DeMar DeRozan being on the floor for them.

 

Toronto Raptors (55.5)

A potential midseason Kawhi Leonard trade would complicate things, but over because he’s such a difference-maker and seems to be fully committed to Toronto this season.

 

Utah Jazz (49)

The Jazz are a candidate to take a step back after exceeding expectations last season, so I’ll go under slightly.

 

Washington Wizards (44.5)

I think the Wizards could surprise some people if Dwight Howard is healthy and on his game. Over.

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